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Thursday, 3 December 2020

Coronavirus COVID-19. What are we getting vaccinated for?

I do not like statistics; they are too often misused and abused. You can prove anything you want to prove through the use of statistics! 

For instance, to prove that COVID-19 is a killer disease is easily done by emphasising the number of people who have died with (and not necessarily of) the virus. To demonstrate this I have taken the following data from the Worldometre website - on 3 December 2020.

This tells me that out of a world population of 7,855,000,000 there have been 65,000,000 cases, of which a total of about 1,500,000 people have died; indeed, a frightening amount of people. 

  • So put another way, using the same figures but with a different emphasis, this means that 7,854,500,000 people have NOT contracted the virus. I will allow you to calculate the percentage!
  • Similarly, put in another way but using the same figures with a different emphasis, although 1,500,000 million people have contracted the disease, 63,500,000 million people contracted the virus and survived.

This means that the chances of contracting the virus is infinitesimal (but significantly greater if you live in the 'advanced' world, and have access to state subsidised pharmaceutical medicine. Even so, the survival rate of those catching the virus is something akin to 97.7%. 

Not quite such a scary picture perhaps.

Yet we should also bear in mind something else we were told, early during the pandemic, but not mentioned much now by those people in the conventional medical establishment who want to emphasise the seriousness of the pandemic. At least 95% (some estimates are higher than this) of these deaths are people with serious ‘underlying health conditions’. In other words, they died with the virus, but not necessarily of the virus.

Whilst all deaths are tragic these ‘underlying health conditions’ indicate that the pandemic is killing people who are already vulnerable, individuals would may have died of something else had there been no COVID-19 pandemic. Much as we may regret it, or refuse to recognise it, this is what always happens. Infections take out those vulnerable people less able to cope with it. And this will always happen.

In addition it is worth noting that death figures consist of anyone who tested positive within 28 days of death. Again, this does not necessarily mean they actually died of Covid-19.

Taking all this into consideration the 1,500,000 deaths becomes a little under 80,000 people - worldwide. That is, just 0.123% of people who have been infected with the virus, who died of the virus itself. Expressed in this way the statistics are even less scary.

If we then look at UK figures, there have been 1,660,000 cases, with the number of people dying just under 60,000. In other words 1,600,000 have contracted the virus and survived. And taking the 95% with underlying health conditions, the number of people who died because of the virus is little more than 3,000 people. This remains unfortunate, but not scary. It is something to be addressed, but not something about which we should be fearful, or driven into a state of panic..

So what are we getting vaccinated for?
Apparently we are all going to be offered one of the new COVID-19 vaccines during the next few months, for a virus most of us will be able to avoid (those with a strong immune system), many more may experience a brief illness, but most of us will survive. 

There will be people with serious underlying health conditions who will require protection, but cetainly not the entire population. And whether it is sensible for them to be protected by an unknown vaccine, tested for only a few weeks and with as yet unknown or unannounced side effects, is another matter.

So I hope most people will do what I will do: to look at the statistics calmly and rationally; to take all sensible precautions; to support and strengthen the immune system; and to continue living life, enjoying our friends, earning a living, and doing the things we want to do. We should all take the risk of crossing the road! Life is not safe, it has never been safe, but this should not prevent us from living

I would suggest this strategy is far safer than having a vaccine injected into your bloodstream. 

The lack of safety and effectiveness of other vaccines strongly suggest that this is not worth the risk.